Earthquake Prediction: Then and Now
September 1st is designated as Disaster Prevention Day in Japan, marking the anniversary of the Great Kanto Earthquake and serving as a moment to reassess our readiness for disasters.
In the past—from the 1970s to the 1990s—there was strong belief that earthquakes could be predicted. Researchers focused on precursor phenomena and pushed large-scale prediction projects. But since the 2000s, scientific consensus has shifted: accurately predicting the exact time and location of an earthquake in the short term is impossible. In fact, in 2013, the Japanese government officially acknowledged this limitation.
Instead, the emphasis has now moved to long-term forecasts, such as the probability of a quake within the next 30 years, combined with real-time monitoring and alert systems. Early warning systems for earthquakes and tsunami alerts are now among the most advanced in the world.
Overseas Reactions
I’m considering moving to Japan and I’m too anxious about earthquakes since it’s a pretty much normal thing in Japan. What’s your feelings about this? How often does it hit? Is that really something I should think about or it isn’t that scary and dangerous? Please share your thoughts and experiences, I’d love to hear them
I sometimes wonder which is better for peace of mind: living in Japan, where earthquakes are common, or living in a country where gun crime and robberies are common?
I know that’s like comparing apples and oranges, though.
Having lived in both, I can say with 100% certainty that I prefer Japan. Earthquakes are nothing compared to waking up with a gun pointed at you.
I feel the same way. I rather die to a natural disaster than getting mugged and shot.
I mean if you’re statistically going there; better be afraid of lightning strikes, airplanes falling out of the sky, getting hit by a car, stomach cancer….
Tiny ones might happen often (idk maybe every 3-8 weeks), bigger almost never. You deal with it by preparing an emergency bag, stashing some water/food, have your phone charged before going to bed and know the emergency place nearby (most likely a school). I even got a helmet 😂😏
… Honestly, better not to think about it much.
You should be aware though that a bigger one might hit big parts of Japan within next 30 years, but Japan tries to prepare for that already. It shouldn’t be a reason for you to not come here though.
People are trying to prepare for it, but are actually very scared of it. Since 2011 every bigger shake results in panic-tweets online “I hope its not the big one 🥲🥲🥲🥲🥲🥲🥲”
It will 100% happen. The question is just when. We have just to stay prepared, that’s all.
Look for an apartment complex build in the past 15 years, west of Shinjuku where you are on the rocky underground… Avoid old areas with tiny roads and small wooden houses… Avoid reclaimed land in Tokyo Bay because the ground liquification risk is high… Also, visit an emergency drill center to experience a Shindo 7 earthquake.
It’s not that bad. You’ll have to take part in lots of drills… My partner was the same as you initially — very scared about them — but now after three years here even they just say “oh an earthquake,” and we get on with whatever we were doing.
Honestly most of the time you will sleep through them or not even notice them… Japan does a better job of disaster preparation I feel.
Download the NERV app. It has real-time data… includes a really cool countdown timer that will let you know when and how intense the shaking… you’ll get 30-60 seconds advanced notice.
I basically don’t worry about it. We picked a part of Japan where earthquakes and tsunami are less common… Meanwhile there have been more earthquakes this week in the city we used to live in than we have experienced in 5 years in Japan.
Best to live in a place built according to the newest earthquake regulations. Earthquakes happen everyday here, but they are mostly very small and unnoticeable.
From “Prediction” to “Mitigation”
In the past, the mindset was “we can predict the next big earthquake,” and government-led drills and stockpiling programs were commonplace. But after the devastating experiences of the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake and the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, a new understanding emerged: disasters are inevitable.
Today, earthquake preparedness is built on three pillars:
- Self-help: individual and household preparedness—stocking supplies and securing furniture
- Mutual aid: community-level coordination and evacuation drills
- Public assistance: government and municipal roles in providing hazard maps and shelter information
This tripartite approach emphasizes that just relying on prediction isn’t sufficient—active, layered preparedness is key.
Is Japan Truly an “Advanced Disaster Preparedness Nation”?
Japan is frequently called a disaster-preparedness leader for good reason—it’s faced repeated natural disasters and continually refined its systems in response.
Key strengths include:
- Cutting-edge alert systems like early earthquake and tsunami warnings
- Strict seismic building codes (especially since the 1981 code update)
- Robust disaster education in schools—through drills and established curriculum
- Active contributions in international forums, such as the United Nations Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction
Remaining Challenges
- Economic Sustainability and Regional Disparities
Advanced infrastructure and seismic retrofitting are costly. Rural areas and low-income households often lag behind urban centers and affluent neighborhoods in disaster resilience. The 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake highlighted the gap—civil infrastructure recovery lagged in more remote areas, delaying access to aid and critical services for months. - Social Psychology and Cultural Attitudes
The normalcy bias—believing “it won’t happen to me”—often delays evacuation or preparedness. A reliance on government (“public assistance”) remains entrenched, even as the ideals of self-help and community support are promoted. - Aging, Shrinking Population
With fewer volunteers in local fire brigades and fewer people involved in neighborhood organizations, the capacity for community-level disaster response is weakening—especially in depopulated areas. - Aging Infrastructure
Recent incidents—road collapses and burst water pipes—highlight the decay of underground infrastructure that was built during Japan’s economic boom. These failures, even without earthquakes, underscore a broader vulnerability that could be exacerbated in a major disaster. - Support for Foreign Residents and Tourists
Despite growing international presence, multi-language disaster information remains patchy. During emergencies, non-Japanese speakers can still be left unsure how to respond. - Intersection with Climate Change
Earthquakes are just one part of the risk spectrum—Japan now faces increasingly frequent mega-typhoons, torrential rains, and heatwaves. Integrating climate adaptation with seismic disaster planning is becoming essential. - Cross-Learning from Abroad
While Japan is often the exporter of disaster resilience know-how, there’s untapped potential in learning from other countries—such as European flood-control strategies or FEMA’s emergency insurance frameworks.
Conclusion
Japan undeniably stands as a disaster-preparedness leader—through the refinement of technology, policy, and education, it has become a global benchmark in reducing earthquake risk. But preparedness is never final. New social, demographic, and environmental challenges mean that continuous adaptation is required to stay resilient.
