News
Japan’s long-standing ruling coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito is on the verge of collapse after nearly 26 years in power.
According to reports on October 10, a key meeting between Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito and newly elected LDP President Sanae Takaichi ended in failure.
Komeito demanded stronger transparency and stricter controls on political funding, but the LDP refused, prompting Komeito to formally decide to leave the coalition.
The breakup poses a serious challenge to the legitimacy and stability of Takaichi’s nascent administration.
Even before this split, the LDP–Komeito bloc had already lost its majority in both houses of parliament, leaving the outlook for governance increasingly uncertain.
Source: Bloomberg – Japan’s ruling coalition set to fall apart, NHK says
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Background
Komeito and Soka Gakkai
Komeito was founded in 1964 as the political wing of the Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai.
While the party formally separated from the religious group in 1970 to comply with Japan’s constitutional principle of church–state separation, Soka Gakkai’s members have continued to provide vital electoral support.
The organization, based on Nichiren Buddhism, claims around 8 million members in Japan and operates in over 190 countries and regions worldwide.
Its core values of peace, humanism, and social welfare have defined Komeito’s centrist and pacifist stance.
Origins of the LDP–Komeito Coalition
The coalition began in 1999 under Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi, when the LDP sought Komeito’s votes to maintain a stable majority.
Since then, Komeito has played the role of moderate counterbalance within the ruling bloc, pushing policies in welfare, education, and diplomacy while tempering the LDP’s more hawkish agenda.
For instance, during the 2015 security legislation debate, Komeito successfully limited the scope of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces overseas missions, reinforcing its image as a “pragmatic centrist” force.
Why the Coalition Collapsed
The immediate cause was a breakdown of trust over the LDP’s handling of its political funding scandal.
Komeito repeatedly urged greater transparency, but the LDP leadership failed to respond decisively.
In addition, the ideological gap widened under Takaichi’s conservative and security-focused leadership, which clashed with Komeito’s pacifist roots.
After 26 years of uneasy but functional cooperation, the alliance finally reached a breaking point—over both ethics and policy.
Overseas Reactions
Reddit Discussions:
Below are selected comments from online discussions following the announcement:
“SGI is a cult. Will that weirdness seep into the LDP now?”
“The LDP’s ties with the Unification Church run way deeper anyway.”
“Cool, a two-for-one problem then.”
“Compared to Kishi and Abe’s Unification Church cronies, at least one of them is homegrown.”
“I don’t know much about politics, but isn’t Komeito leaving bad news?
A coalition between the LDP and Ishin would be far more right-wing.”
“LDP + DPFP could work, but the opposition is already discussing a broader anti-LDP coalition that might even include Komeito.”
“Bravo! You can sense DPFP and Sanseito getting closer every day.”
“This is huge. People underestimate how vital Komeito has been to the LDP’s election machinery.
According to Nikkan Gendai, 93 LDP lawmakers depend directly on Komeito’s organizational votes.”
“The LDP might negotiate with Ishin or DPFP, but both options come with issues.
Meanwhile, the CDP is reaching out to other opposition parties. Tamaki from DPFP might even aim for the prime minister’s seat.”
“The collapse of the LDP isn’t automatically a good thing. Chaos creates openings for extremists.
Be careful what you wish for.”
“I’m not anti-LDP; I support its moderate members. But the far-right faction that worships the Unification Church needs to be crushed.”
“Hardliners just got their chance. Without DPFP’s cooperation, Japan’s politics could get messy fast.”
Analysis: Japan After the LDP–Komeito Split — Three Realignment Scenarios
1. LDP + DPFP Coalition — but the “Rengo” Dilemma
The most pragmatic option for the LDP is to ally with the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), led by Yuichiro Tamaki.
Tamaki’s moderate conservatism aligns well with the LDP’s policies on defense and economic growth.
However, DPFP’s main backer, the Japanese Trade Union Confederation (Rengo), remains divided:
industrial unions lean conservative, while public-sector and education unions support the opposition CDP.
If Tamaki chooses to partner with the LDP, he risks alienating his base within Rengo—forcing a trade-off between influence in government and organizational support.
2. Ishin’s New Position — Toward an “Osaka Alliance”
With Komeito leaving, the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) suddenly finds itself in a stronger position.
Previously constrained by its rivalry with Komeito in Osaka, Ishin can now work more closely with the LDP on policy areas such as economic reform, decentralization, and defense.
An “LDP + Ishin” partnership—an Osaka-centered conservative alliance—is increasingly plausible.
Still, nationwide cooperation will require significant coordination and internal consensus within both parties.
3. Opposition “Grand Coalition” — The Tamaki-Led Scenario
Meanwhile, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) is exploring an ambitious plan to form a multi-party anti-LDP coalition led by Tamaki.
This would bring together the DPFP, Reiwa Shinsengumi, the Japanese Communist Party, and others.
Interestingly, some analysts suggest that Komeito itself could align with this bloc, as its pacifist and welfare-oriented agenda overlaps with the opposition’s.
If realized, it would mark Japan’s first “broad-spectrum coalition” including a religious party—though policy coordination and ideological friction would pose major challenges.
4. Goshi Ishiba’s Possible “Dissolution Election”
There is also a remote but intriguing scenario:
Prime Minister Goshi Ishiba, acting as caretaker, could dissolve the lower house to resolve the political deadlock.
Such a “reset dissolution” would not aim to extend power but to let voters redefine Japan’s political map.
While constitutionally possible, it remains unlikely—yet the mere discussion reflects the degree of political instability Japan now faces.
Conclusion — The End of the Post-War Coalition Era
The collapse of the LDP–Komeito partnership is more than a political breakup; it marks the end of Japan’s post-war coalition framework.
The political landscape may now evolve into a three-bloc structure:
- LDP: choosing between pragmatic centrism or hardline nationalism
- Komeito: redefining itself as a moderate “citizens’ party” independent of religious backing
- DPFP and Ishin: rising as centrist power brokers capable of tipping future coalitions
Japan is entering an era of fluid politics, where alliances will shift and the traditional “LDP vs. anti-LDP” divide no longer applies.
The next general election—whenever it comes—will not just choose a government, but decide the shape of Japan’s political order for the next generation.
Japan’s politics now stand at a historic crossroads — a moment of both instability and opportunity.
