The Death of “El Mencho” and the Surge of Retaliatory Violence in Mexico – What Comes Next?

On February 22, 2026, Mexican security forces killed Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, widely known as “El Mencho,” the leader of the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), during a military operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco. His death marked the most significant strike against organized crime in Mexico in more than a decade.

The operation, supported by U.S. intelligence for planning and targeting, immediately triggered widespread retaliatory violence across multiple states, challenging the Mexican government’s ability to maintain security and raising international concern.

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What Happened on February 22?

El Mencho was located by security forces following intelligence tracking, including surveillance of close associates connected to his romantic partner. In the ensuing raid, a firefight broke out, and he was fatally wounded. He died while being airlifted to Mexico City for treatment.

The death of El Mencho, one of the world’s most wanted fugitives with a $15 million U.S. bounty on his head, was confirmed by Mexico’s Defence Ministry.

Immediate Retaliation: Violence Across Mexico

The response from cartel elements was swift and coordinated. Networks loyal to El Mencho launched violent reprisals that included:

Road blockades and more than 250 blocked routes with burning vehicles across at least 20 states, including Jalisco, Michoacán, Guanajuato, and Tamaulipas.
Arson attacks on businesses and infrastructure in urban and rural areas.
Clashes with security forces, resulting in the deaths of at least 25 National Guard members and additional casualties among cartel gunmen.
Escapes from custody, such as 23 prisoners fleeing a jail attack in Puerto Vallarta.

The Mexican government deployed thousands of soldiers, National Guard members, and air force units to respond to the chaos and restore order.

Structural Implications: What This Means for CJNG and Mexico

1. Power Vacuum and Internal Competition

El Mencho’s sudden death created a leadership void. His son, Rubén Oseguera González (“El Menchito”), is imprisoned in the United States, removing a clear successor. This vacuum raises the risk of internal fragmentation, factional warfare, and contested succession within CJNG.

2. Rival Groups and Turf Wars

A weakened CJNG could invite aggression from rival organizations, such as the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel, or splinter groups seeking to exploit instability and expand their territories.

Retaliation Strategy: Asymmetric Tactics

The retaliatory tactics observed go beyond spontaneous violence. They reflect a calculated asymmetric strategy aimed at destabilizing state response capabilities:

Narcobloqueos (narco blockades) deliberately impede rapid deployment of reinforcements.
Public displays of force and infrastructure attacks aim to signal ongoing operational reach.
The chaos has led to flight cancellations, school closures, and advisories for citizens and tourists to shelter in place.

International and Security Impact

World Cup and Tourism Concerns

Mexico is co-hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with match cities including Guadalajara—located in one of the most affected regions. Violence has already led to postponement of domestic sporting events, flight disruptions, and security warnings from foreign governments.

While officials maintain that World Cup venues remain secure, the ongoing unrest threatens international perceptions of safety and could affect tourism and the economy.

U.S.-Mexico Cooperation and Sovereignty Dynamics

The operation underscores deep cooperation between U.S. intelligence and Mexican forces. However, transparency around the extent of U.S. involvement remains sensitive, as the Mexican government emphasizes sovereign control over domestic security operations.

Why This Matters Beyond One Leader

El Mencho’s death is symbolically significant, but experts caution that:

Removing a kingpin does not dismantle deeply entrenched trafficking networks.
Cartels often adapt and evolve, sometimes becoming more unpredictable in the absence of centralized leadership.
Violence may continue or escalate as groups jockey for position both internally and externally.

Conclusion: A Turning Point With No Clear End in Sight

The killing of Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes was a historic achievement for Mexican security forces and a symbolic victory in the long struggle against cartel dominance. Yet the chaotic wave of retaliation, the leadership vacuum within CJNG, and the broader geopolitical and security risks suggest that Mexico has entered a much more volatile phase rather than approaching a resolution of its longstanding drug war challenges.