News
Following Komeito’s decision to withdraw from its long-standing coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), political maneuvering has intensified ahead of the upcoming extraordinary Diet session to select Japan’s next prime minister.
If opposition parties—who currently hold a majority in the Lower House—can unite, a change of government could be within reach.
LDP President Sanae Takaichi stated on October 10, “I will do everything I can until the session convenes,” reaffirming her intention to seek the premiership. The LDP remains the largest party with 196 seats, but still falls short of the 233 needed for a majority.
Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito declined to clarify his party’s stance on a possible runoff vote, though senior officials have hinted they may withhold support from both Takaichi and the opposition’s nominee.
Meanwhile, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), and Democratic Party for the People (DPP) collectively control 210 seats—not enough for a majority, but enough to surpass the LDP. The question now is whether these opposition parties can coordinate effectively.
CDP Secretary-General Jun Azumi has proposed Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of the DPP, as a unified opposition candidate for prime minister. CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda added that he hopes to “foster careful cooperation and solidarity.”
Tamaki responded, “I am prepared to serve as Prime Minister,” calling on the CDP to align its stance on national security and energy policy. Ishin leader Hirofumi Yoshimura also suggested that his party “would be open to discussions if the CDP and DPP unite behind Tamaki.”
Source: The Yomiuri Shimbun
Supplementary Context
How Japan’s Prime Minister is Chosen
Japan’s prime ministerial election (shusho shimei senkyo) is held in both chambers of the National Diet. A candidate must secure a majority—233 of 465 votes in the Lower House—to be appointed prime minister.
If no candidate achieves this in the first round, a runoff vote is held between the top two contenders, and the one with the most votes wins. If the two chambers select different candidates, the Lower House decision takes precedence.
Current Party Composition (as of October 2025)
- LDP: 196 seats
- Komeito: 24
- CDP: 148
- Japan Innovation Party: 35
- Democratic Party for the People: 27
A combined CDP–Ishin–DPP bloc would hold about 210 seats, surpassing the LDP but still short of a majority. Thus, the stance of Komeito and independent lawmakers will likely determine the next government’s direction.
Tamaki’s Statement and His Tense Ties with the CDP
On October 10, Yuichiro Tamaki posted the following message on X (formerly Twitter):
“I am prepared to serve as Prime Minister. That is precisely why I am asking our coalition partners to agree on fundamental policies, especially regarding national security.”
Tamaki acknowledged the CDP’s proposal to nominate him as a prime ministerial candidate but demanded clarity on policy alignment—particularly concerning security legislation (which the CDP once deemed unconstitutional) and nuclear energy policy.
This tension reflects deeper divides between the two parties’ support bases. Both are backed by Rengo, Japan’s largest labor federation, which straddles conservative and liberal factions. Tamaki, seeking to maintain a centrist position, aims to balance Rengo’s influence while ensuring a pragmatic, security-oriented approach to governance.
Historical Precedent
The current situation evokes memories of 1993, when Ichiro Ozawa orchestrated a “non-LDP, non-Communist coalition” that brought Morihiro Hosokawa to power—ending 38 years of uninterrupted LDP rule. That coalition soon collapsed within a year due to ideological rifts.
A similar dynamic reemerged under the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in 2009, when internal divisions over issues like the Futenma base relocation and Japan–U.S. relations led to policy paralysis and loss of public trust.
These past failures explain Tamaki’s insistence on “policy unity” before forming a coalition. With history as a guide, many observers see his stance as a safeguard against repeating Japan’s short-lived coalition mistakes.
Overseas Reactions
I’ve seen this movie before — a political classic. Can’t believe we’re going back to the ’90s.
1990s? This is more like 2010. Either way, I’m all for the LDP getting wrecked again, lol.
Back in 2009, the LDP lost big to the DPJ, which took a majority. In the early ’90s, eight opposition parties briefly formed a shaky coalition government — three prime ministers in two years. Today feels more like that than 2009’s DPJ rule.
Fair point. That’s exactly it.
I want to believe this time will be different — hopefully a more stable coalition, at least until the next general election. Japan needs a reset, even a small one.
With the CDP backing Tamaki and Ishin likely to follow, they could outnumber Takaichi and push the LDP into opposition.
It would be enough to trigger a runoff, but still 23 votes short of a majority.
A majority isn’t needed in the runoff — whoever gets the most votes wins.
Oh, interesting. So if many lawmakers abstain, Tamaki might actually win.
Even within the CDP there’s division. The right wing supports Tamaki, but the left hates his defense and nuclear policies. He’s the best candidate, but getting the CDP’s left on board won’t be easy.
How different is Tamaki from Takaichi? It’s 3 a.m., I’m too tired to Google it.
He’s center-right — pro-defense buildup, even accused of colonial nostalgia. Not anti-immigrant, but supports tighter immigration limits by region.
Yeah, but he’s not as monarchist-nationalist as Takaichi or as far-right as Sanseito.
Komeito said they won’t vote for Tamaki this time, but they might shift stance in the final round.
Tamaki’s condition is that the CDP back nuclear energy and stop treating SDF expansion as “unconditional.” Basically, he wants the CDP to align with DPP policy — which won’t be easy. Ironically, it was the CDP who first proposed uniting behind him. Let’s see how they respond.
Analysis and Commentary
This political development can best be summarized as “Laying the groundwork for conservative realignment beneath the surface of opposition unity.”
Tamaki’s declaration that he is “ready to serve as Prime Minister” signals more than a simple opposition coalition — it points toward a broader political restructuring in Japan.
Tamaki’s emphasis on policy alignment is both strategic and historical. As a former member of the DPJ government, he witnessed firsthand how security policy disunity paralyzed decision-making. His demand for coherence in defense and energy policies shows a desire to avoid repeating those mistakes.
Another subplot involves Aso–Shimba diplomacy. DPP Secretary-General Yoshikazu Shimba recently met with LDP heavyweight Taro Aso. Before that, Shimba joked he might “visit Aso’s home to borrow a manga called Hiraba no Hito.” The story — whether literal or metaphorical — hints at behind-the-scenes communication between moderates in both camps.
Meanwhile, Komeito’s exit from the coalition opens the door to new alignments. A LDP–Ishin–DPP axis could emerge as a pragmatic, policy-driven conservative bloc, replacing the long-standing LDP–Komeito framework.
In short, Japan may be entering a new phase: a dual reconfiguration, where conservative forces seek balance under a post-Komeito landscape, while the liberal bloc redefines its own unity.
Tamaki’s statement is less about personal ambition and more about a reset of Japan’s political coordinates — a prelude to a reorganization of “new conservatism and centrism.”
