News
Reuters reports that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership race has officially begun with early announcements by veteran politician Toshimitsu Motegi and rising conservative Takayuki Kobayashi. Motegi, who previously served as Foreign Minister and is known for his strong memory and meticulous style—so much so that bureaucrats prepared a “Motegi Manual” on how to handle him—was the first to declare his candidacy.
Kobayashi, nicknamed “Kobahawk” for his hawkish stance on national security, also announced his candidacy soon after. He has recently argued that Japan should halt its heavy promotion of solar power, reflecting his cautious stance on energy policy.
Other figures widely expected to enter the race include Yoshimasa Hayashi, current Chief Cabinet Secretary, Shinjiro Koizumi, the popular reformist, and Sanae Takaichi, the conservative standard-bearer who narrowly lost to Ishiba in the 2024 leadership contest.
At this stage, however, only Motegi and Kobayashi have formally declared their candidacies.
Background Explanation
For those unfamiliar with Japanese politics, the LDP leadership race effectively decides Japan’s next Prime Minister, since the LDP has dominated postwar politics. Candidates must gather support from both Diet members and party members nationwide, often requiring delicate coalition-building across factional lines.
Key terms:
- Yasukuni Shrine: A controversial Shinto shrine in Tokyo honoring Japan’s war dead, including convicted war criminals. Visits by politicians spark criticism from China, Korea, and international observers.
- Kobahawk: A nickname for Takayuki Kobayashi, combining his surname with “hawk,” signaling his strong national security stance.
- Fiscal Expansion (積極財政): A policy of aggressive government spending and monetary easing to stimulate the economy. Critics warn this could worsen inflation and public debt, recalling the UK’s “Truss Shock” in 2022.
Overseas Reactions
No Kono? More of the same it’ll be then
Anyone besides Takaichi!
Why? I don’t know much about either
Yakaichi is far right woman. She prays at Yasukuni shrine and parrots the nationalists. She would be chosen if they are truly scared of losing out more to Sanseito. You have to remember though that actually the older and religious types in Komeito who coalition with LDP hate her and Sanseito in general favors a youth approach which does alienate many conservatives that make up the core of LDP. She would be the farthest right wing leader in a long time for Japan.
Koizumi is frat boy, not so smart but charismatic and fairly popular in general with most of the LDP base. This would be pretty much status quo but there are some good and bad to him but unless you are for Sanseito which is the new alt right party then he is preferable.
First woman PM would be historic, but can’t really say Takaichi is the right woman for the job (because she’s a bit too “right” for the job). Could do worse than Koizumi, but could probably do better. Whoever it is, capitulation to right-wing populism for the sake of consolidating power is the last thing that Japan should want. Centrism and reaching across the aisle is the way to go, lest the Japanese, too, find themselves in an increasingly polemic shitshow.
Please, let’s not have Takaichi because she would be the first woman PM. No good will from it.
“I’m a fighter and not a quitter!”
Unfortunately people are unhappy with inflation and I think the Sanseito message is resonating. Easy to blame foreigners for everything instead of taking responsibility and admitting society needs to change course to survive.
A bit too right? How about wayyy right.
Takaichi would suck for sure, but I think there’s a scenario in which she prevents even worse right-wing parties from growing. Don’t know how realistic that is though because this type of “trying to keep the far right down by adopting some of their positions” seems to fail more often than it succeeds.
That’s my primary concern. Give a mouse a cookie and it will want to deport all the foreigners. I wouldn’t mind someone who’s tough on the tariffs but also recognizes the need for immigrants in Japan and is at least not buying into the whole scapegoating trend of late. Not that we really get to choose; the Diet will make its own decision. Still, following in MAGA’s footsteps will have predictable results, and it would be a shame if they kicked me out after the nearly two decades I have been here working and paying taxes as an immigrant.
There is a point in these trajectories where the society goes past a point of no return of sorts and the polarization spirals out of control, but I want to think that Japan is at the point where things can still be balanced out relatively calmly. I could begrudgingly accept a potential Takaichi PM if she’d be able to achieve that result, even if it comes with some shitty things. But no one can see the future…
I’m at the same place, more or less. I feel like Japan is quite far from any “point of no return.” But (while you might also be an immigrant in Japan) I have skin in the game and therefore feel a little less comfortable with anyone too far right steering policy, especially since I have seen the last two decades in American politics and recognize the playbook. But as you say, who knows?
Does it really matter. I can’t keep up on who’s the current one anymore.
Not sure why this is downvoted. The revolving door of PMs has reportedly been the butt of jokes at G7 meetings, and whoever is elected will have to walk the party line anyway (look at Ishiba’s stance on gay marriage).
“It doesn’t matter who’s elected” is a legitimate critique of Japanese politics.
I like Koizumi because Bush Sr puked in his dad’s lap.
It was not his father’s laps. The prime minister vomited on was Kiichi Miyazawa.
Oh – that is unfortunate. Do not correct me though, my opinion has already been solidified and your facts will not make me change my mind! /s
Try not to pick another globalist shill hellbent on destroying the country?
Go Koizumi. We need someone younger.
That kid is a moron and a joke. Youth doesn’t make someone a better politician or person. I don’t know a single Japanese person who respects him. I don’t think he’s winning anything.
Here’s kind of the issue with leadership. You can have someone with age, but lacks the proper experience (Look at Trump. He was old when he got his first term.), then there’s young politicians who do have the experience (Look at Obama.).
In Japan… it’s the case of what like what u/SoKratez and u/Haunting_Summer_1652 said… it doesn’t matter.
Yes for sure. He cares about environment, has Masters from Columbia, supports same-sex marriage, supports having option of female surname after marriage, and is generally pretty chill.
He’s an idiot nepo baby.
Don’t matter, will be out soon.
let’s do mock election!
Introducing the newest contestants on the hit show, ‘Mr. Japan’!
Koizumi Make Japan Sexy Again Shinjiro!! /jk
japan will vote for the most us subservient and right wing one. it is it an independent country.
Hopefully Takaichi!!! And Sanseito should get top votes, Japanese first!
Does anybody really care?
If it’s gonna be Takaichi then I care. Anyone but her.
Why have we created a society where every top politician is a bad choice. It’s like trying to decide between which turd to eat for dinner.
Whoever it is, Japan will need to change drastically or it will become the sewer of Asia.
Analysis & Commentary
Why is Sanae Takaichi popular in Japan but disliked overseas?
Within Japan, Sanae Takaichi commands strong support, especially among conservative voters. Her firm stance on constitutional revision and her hawkish approach to national security resonate with the LDP’s traditional base. As the potential first female Prime Minister, she also attracts attention from voters seeking symbolic change. Polls often rank her high among “most suitable next prime ministers,” underscoring her significant domestic presence.
On international platforms like Reddit, however, Takaichi faces heavy criticism. Several factors explain this gap:
- Symbolic conservatism
Takaichi openly declares her intention to visit Yasukuni Shrine, a position praised domestically as “principled,” but one that international audiences see as endorsing Japan’s wartime past. For many, this associates her with historical revisionism and far-right nationalism. - Social conservatism
Her opposition to same-sex marriage and separate surnames for married couples clashes sharply with liberal values common among Western users. Reddit’s generally young and progressive community tends to label her as “out of touch.” - Link to right-wing populism
Observers also suspect that Takaichi is leaning further right to appeal to voters drifting toward populist movements like Sanseito. To those familiar with MAGA in the U.S. or far-right surges in Europe, she appears to embody a “Japanese Trump” phenomenon. - Different priorities: domestic vs. international
Domestically, she’s viewed as someone who will “defend Japan” and “stimulate the economy.” Internationally, she’s seen as a leader who could damage Japan’s reputation and unsettle regional stability.
While her image at home is that of a “guardian of conservative values,” abroad she risks being viewed as a “polarizing, nationalist figure.”
Note on fiscal policy:
Takaichi also advocates fiscal expansion and aggressive spending, positioning herself as a champion of protecting livelihoods. Yet overseas, such policies raise concerns about inflation and rising interest rates, even drawing parallels with the UK’s Truss Shock. Some analysts note she may eventually moderate her stance, moving closer to a pragmatic line if market pressures grow.
Toshimitsu Motegi — The Negotiator with a Manual
Motegi is often described as the consummate “policy wonk.” His sharp memory is so legendary that bureaucrats reportedly created a “Motegi Manual” on how to deal with his exacting style. Domestically, he is valued as a reliable and experienced hand, having faced off against Donald Trump in tough trade negotiations.
Internationally, however, he is sometimes seen as lacking charisma or innovation — a “safe pair of hands” but not a transformative leader. His strength lies in continuity and pragmatism, but critics note he may struggle to inspire public enthusiasm.
Takayuki Kobayashi (“Kobahawk”) — Between Takaichi and Koizumi
Kobayashi positions himself as a fresh, younger face, yet his right-wing stances often overlap with Takaichi’s base. At the same time, his youth and reformist energy put him in competition with Shinjiro Koizumi. This dual overlap risks leaving him squeezed between more established rivals.
His recent statement calling for Japan to step back from large-scale solar promotion reflects his cautious approach to energy security. Supporters view him as a generational alternative with expertise in economic security, while critics argue he lacks a distinct, independent identity.
Yoshimasa Hayashi — The “Default” Candidate
As Chief Cabinet Secretary under both Kishida and Ishiba, Hayashi has extensive administrative experience and is respected within the party. Among Diet members, he is often seen as the “least risky option,” gaining support by default rather than charisma.
However, his role during the 2025 House of Councillors defeat under Ishiba raises questions of accountability. International observers see him as stable but uninspiring, unlikely to introduce bold reforms or dramatically shift Japan’s global posture.
Shinjiro Koizumi — Popular but Polarizing
Koizumi remains one of Japan’s most recognizable political figures, with strong media skills and appeal among younger voters. He demonstrated political influence when, alongside Yoshihide Suga, he persuaded Prime Minister Ishiba not to dissolve the lower house — a decision that directly led to Ishiba’s resignation. This episode showed Koizumi can shape power struggles, not just attract media attention.
Yet his “lightweight” reputation persists, both domestically and abroad. Critics label him a “nepo baby” lacking policy depth. Supporters counter that his charisma, environmental stance, and advocacy of same-sex marriage could modernize the LDP. Whether he can move beyond style to substance remains the key question.
Conclusion: LDP Leadership Race 2025 — Who Will Lead Japan Next?
The 2025 LDP leadership race highlights one of the central dynamics of Japanese politics today: the sharp divide between how candidates are perceived domestically versus internationally.
- Motegi is valued at home for his steady experience but viewed abroad as uninspiring.
- Kobayashi embodies youth and security expertise but struggles to distinguish himself from Takaichi and Koizumi.
- Hayashi offers stability and gains support as a “default” choice, yet remains tied to the party’s recent electoral defeat.
- Koizumi enjoys nationwide popularity and media presence, yet faces skepticism over his depth and substance.
- Takaichi commands conservative loyalty in Japan but is seen overseas as a polarizing, far-right figure, her fiscal expansion policies raising economic concerns as well.
For domestic voters, the priorities are security, economic policy, and generational change. For international observers, the key concerns are fiscal discipline, right-wing populism, and Japan’s global image. The next LDP leader will not only determine Japan’s domestic agenda but also signal to the world what kind of role Japan intends to play in the coming decade.
The question remains: Who will become Japan’s next Prime Minister — and how will their leadership reshape both Japan’s politics and its standing abroad?
Related Articles
- The Gap Between Ideal and Reality in Japan’s Energy Transition – せかはん（世界の反応）
- Why Is Japan Still Not Allowing Optional Married Couple Surnames? – せかはん（世界の反応）
- PM Ishiba Decides to Resign to Avoid Party Split – せかはん（世界の反応）
Sources
- Reuters | Japan’s Motegi says he will run in LDP leadership race (2025/09/08)
- Reuters | Japan PM hopeful Motegi endorses BOJ’s plan to gradually normalise monetary policy (2025/09/10)
- Reuters | Japan’s Koizumi, Hayashi to run for leadership of ruling party (2025/09/16)
- Asahi Shimbun | Takayuki Kobayashi announces candidacy for LDP presidency, pledges tax cuts for working generations (2025/09/16)
- Tokyo Weekender | Japan’s Next Prime Minister? 2025 LDP Leadership Race Key Candidates Guide (2025/09/11)
