Metaplanet Stock Plunges 70%: Risks of Bitcoin Treasury Firms and Lessons for Investors

News: Metaplanet Stock Down 70% From June Highs

The share price of Metaplanet (3350), listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Standard, has fallen sharply from its June 2025 high of around ¥1,900. As of September 12, it was trading near ¥570, marking a decline of roughly 70% in just a few months.

メタプラネット株価が70％下落──mNAVが示す下落要因と今後の展望

Basic Knowledge for Beginners and Factors Behind the Decline

The sharp drop in Metaplanet’s stock reflects mechanisms unique to both the cryptocurrency and equity markets. Here’s a simplified guide for beginner investors.

What is a Bitcoin Treasury Company?

A company that purchases and holds large amounts of Bitcoin as part of its assets. MicroStrategy in the U.S. is a prime example. Metaplanet has adopted the same strategy, and its share price is heavily influenced by Bitcoin’s price movements.

How the Stock Price Rose (The Scheme)

Metaplanet repeated the cycle of:

Issuing new shares to raise capital
Using the funds to buy Bitcoin
Increasing Bitcoin holdings, boosting theoretical value (mNAV)
Investors rushing in, expecting “if Bitcoin rises, so will the stock”

This expectation fueled a short-term surge in the share price.

Why Buy Stock Instead of Bitcoin Directly?

Can be traded easily via a regular brokerage account
Stocks operate within established financial regulations, providing more security
Bitcoin’s price movements can amplify a company’s stock price swings
In Japan, crypto profits are taxed as ordinary income (up to 55%), while stock capital gains are taxed at around 20% flat
Future tax reforms on crypto are being discussed, which could make direct ownership easier down the line

What is mNAV (Modified Net Asset Value)?

An indicator showing the theoretical value per share, calculated by dividing the company’s assets (including Bitcoin) by the number of shares. Investors use it to judge whether a stock is over- or undervalued.

What is Dilution?

When new shares are issued, existing shareholders’ ownership is diluted, reducing the value per share. While it provides capital, it also pressures the stock price.

Why Did the Stock Fall 70%?

Continuous new share issuances over recent months, fueling dilution fears and a downtrend
In September, a global public offering issued new shares at a 10–20% discount to market price
This signaled to existing shareholders that their shares were being diluted at a cheaper value, triggering panic selling
The supply-demand balance collapsed, leading to a steep sell-off and a 70% plunge from the peak

Overseas Reactions

How could Metaplanet stop the bleeding?

Since we have a pretty good community, I was asking myself if smart / informed people could shed a light on what should happen so that Metaplanet stops its crazy bleeding.
My expectation is that some stabilization should finally arrive between 15.09.2025 – 19.09.2025. I suspect the price should fluctuate between $3.4 and $3.61. The info is partly calculated based on news from 10.09.2025 on the Metaplanet website.
PS: I would leave the pessimistic scenarios out of this discussion as every crypto-based stock is bound to crash violently due to its nature.

We should wait for the quiet period to end so that Simon and Dylan can share their views on the situation. Then we can think what’s next.

Didn’t they just do the most recent offering at a 20% discount to the market price? I mean that should give you an indication of where the stock is going to go in the short term.

Yeah. They did. Strive (ASST) did one at a 75% discount. No idea why people own it.

Next week will be a few good catalysators for relief.

Massive BTC purchase + Quiet period over.

They could leave the MSW paused for a little bit to let the stock try to breathe and regain some higher prices.

They could borrow some funds from Evo to buy bitcoin while the MSW program is paused, thus increasing bitcoin per share without dilution. Yes, they’ll later have to dilute to pay this back, but hopefully at a much higher mNAV by the time the MSW resumes.

They could modify the MSW plan so that it isn’t based on a 3-day average that gets telegraphed to the shorts, which then allows them to front run the Evo dilution plan.

They could get preferreds to market as soon as humanly possible to buy bitcoin without further dilution.

They could sell CSPs on bitcoin and use those proceeds to either reduce debt or buy more bitcoin if the preferreds haven’t been started yet.

The downward trajectory of Metaplanet’s stock is primarily driven by ongoing dilution. It is Metaplanet itself that holds the power to halt this decline. However, since the company’s only source of revenue—aside from a potential increase in Bitcoin’s value—is through issuing new shares, dilution is likely to continue. Only a sharp rise in Bitcoin could lead to a recovery in the stock price. Conversely, any consolidation or drop in Bitcoin’s value would likely result in significant losses for the stock.

Once I read they sold shares with an over 10% discount I exited. It’s a dealbreaker for me. This is unfair for the existing shareholders.

I’ve lost a lot of money, unfortunately. Technically, it’s not lost until I sell, but I’m very much negative at the moment, and very much concerned about the future of this company.

Metaplanet is definitely at a very Bad Spot with a mNav of 1.3 or so. It can even go sub 1.

It feels like institutions are shorting the hell out of this stock so they can cover them at the lower price from paper handed retailers. There will come a time for a huge short squeeze so I will HODL💪

Glossary (Terms from Reddit Comments)

Quiet Period: A legally required silent period during which companies cannot make public statements before or after issuing securities.
Strive (ASST): Refers to Strive Asset Management, a U.S. asset manager. ASST is the ticker of one of its ETFs. Mentioned as an example of a prior large-scale discounted share issuance.
Evo: Likely shorthand for a financial institution or partner (e.g., Evolution Partners) involved in Metaplanet’s financing.
Front-run: To trade ahead of others’ orders. In this context, short sellers anticipating Metaplanet’s 3-day average issuance price and selling ahead.
CSP (Covered Short Position): Refers here to strategies using Bitcoin as collateral for short or options trades, to generate funds.
Short Squeeze: A surge in stock price when short sellers are forced to buy back shares, fueling rapid upward momentum.

Analysis｜Risks and Lessons From the Metaplanet Crash

1. The Two Sides of “Bitcoin-linked Stocks”

Metaplanet gained attention as the “Japanese MicroStrategy,” offering an indirect way for investors to gain Bitcoin exposure. But its stock moves are driven by both Bitcoin price fluctuations and its capital-raising strategy—making risks even larger than Bitcoin itself.

2. Limits of a Dilution-driven Model

The repeated “issue new shares → buy Bitcoin” cycle boosts holdings but continually dilutes shareholders. The 70% drop shows how this structural risk eventually undermines stock value.

3. Investor Psychology and the Festival Stock Effect

Metaplanet’s surge in June was fueled by hype and FOMO. But once momentum faded, the same crowd rushed for the exit. A textbook case of how “festival stocks” collapse once the music stops.

4. History Repeats Itself

This is not new—similar patterns occurred with:

Tulip Mania (17th century Netherlands)
The South Sea Bubble (18th century UK)
The Dot-com Bubble (early 2000s)

All share the same cycle: excessive expectations → bubble → collapse. Metaplanet fits this historical pattern.

5. mNAV and Future Outlook

With the stock near its mNAV (theoretical value = 1x), further massive declines seem less likely. However, Metaplanet’s fate still depends heavily on Bitcoin. If Bitcoin plunges, its mNAV will fall too, dragging the stock lower again.

6. Long-term Bitcoin Potential

Bitcoin has repeatedly crashed and recovered, but over the long term it has trended upward. As global adoption grows, its long-term value could rise further. Yet short-term volatility remains inevitable, and investors must weigh both growth potential and crash risks.

Lessons for Beginner Investors

The Metaplanet case highlights both the appeal and fragility of investing in “crypto-treasury stocks.”

Key takeaways:

Don’t chase hype-driven rallies
Understand company fundamentals and how dilution works
Remember: large price swings = higher risk, not easy profit

By seeing this through the lens of past bubbles, beginners can avoid repeating the same mistakes.

That’s all for today’s article. See you again in the next one.

This article does not constitute investment advice. It is intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Any investment decisions should be made at your own responsibility.

Metaplanet Stock Plunges 70%: Risks of Bitcoin Treasury Firms and Lessons for Investors

News: Metaplanet Stock Down 70% From June Highs