According to Reuters, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba decided to resign after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a historic defeat in the July Upper House election, aiming to avoid further division within the party. Party sources confirmed the decision on Sunday.
Ishiba, who took office in October 2024, had faced growing criticism both inside and outside the party, and his future was under close scrutiny ahead of the next LDP leadership race. His move comes as the LDP, now a minority government, is being pushed to seek coalition partners.
A ruling party official said, “Prime Minister Ishiba decided to resign with party unity as his top priority,” emphasizing that the aim was to prevent further political turmoil.
Source (Reuters): https://www.reuters.com/world/japan-pm-ishiba-will-resign-avoid-party-split-source-says-2025-09-07/
Related article:
https://sekahan0623.com/ishiba-cabinet-strange-stability/
Overseas Reactions
TOKYO (AP) — Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has expressed his intention on Sunday to step down following growing calls from his party to take responsibility for a historic defeat in July’s parliamentary election, Japan’s NHK public television reported. Ishiba, who took office in October, had resisted growing calls from within his own party to resign for more than a month, saying such a step would cause a political vacuum when Japan faces key challenges in and outside the country. His resignation plan comes a day before his Liberal Democratic Party makes a divisive decision on whether to hold an early leadership election, a virtual no-confidence motion against him if approved.
The US needs to install the No Confidence rule. We could’ve excised this malignant narcissistic sociopathic grifter eons ago.
Who would have imagined this day would come. Zero achievements, zero progress… I am blindsided.
The immigration controversy was the final straw. The man and the LDP lost badly already and then the immigration scandal broke out and it actually got massive amounts of Japanese to protest (very rare indeed). Not really surprising this is the result.
Related article:
https://sekahan0623.com/jica-africa-hometowns-immigration-debate/
My news feed is already flooded with Trump news. And even on posts not even remotely related to American politics, I still see that fucker mentioned.
There are so many far rights here in Japan now. Its gonna be a hard time for the lefts from now on thanks to our current party.
Give it time. You may even end up finding that to be a good thing.
Had he implemented anything incompetently, he may have destroyed the economy, and country even further.
Article on Asahi Shimbun (English). Found another Asahi article: Japan PM Ishiba resigns after series of bruising election losses.
So many countries (some Asian and many European) have some sort of No Confidence rule that force re-elections and the forming of a new government when the elected one is inept. It’s unfortunate we were sort of the first modern beta version of democracy.
Presidential vs parliamentary system. In the US, the head of state is also the head of government and is elected separately from the legislature. In a parliamentary system like Japan or Canada, the head of government is responsible to the legislature and the executive is not elected separately. The heads of state of Japan and Canada are hereditary, but there are numerous parliamentary republics with elected or indirectly elected presidents.
The Turning Point of Japanese Politics
The Structural Curse of Short-Lived Cabinets
Ishiba’s resignation was directly triggered by the historic defeat in the July Upper House election. Yet behind it lies a structural problem of Japanese politics: except for Shinzo Abe’s long administration, prime ministers tend to serve short terms. Party infighting, public pressure, and policy gridlock create a cycle of “short-lived cabinets.” Ishiba was no exception, leaving less than a year after taking office.
Conservative Split and the Rise of New Parties
A key factor behind the defeat is the defection of the LDP’s conservative base. Segments of long-time LDP supporters have shifted to parties such as the Democratic Party for the People, Sanseito, and the Japan Conservative Party—Sanseito notably increased its seats. This mirrors global currents of populism and anti-immigration sentiment in Europe and the US. While some online reactions framed the immigration scandal as decisive, the deeper cause is accumulated distrust toward the LDP itself.
Economy, Diplomacy, and Public Sentiment
Public frustration has been fueled by inflation, a weak yen, and stagnant wages. The Ishiba administration failed to deliver convincing solutions, drawing harsh judgments of “zero achievements.” This cynicism reflects a broader domestic resignation that politics cannot be relied upon—an entrenched distrust that risks eroding democratic foundations.
At the same time, Ishiba brought experience in diplomacy and defense, seeking stability in relations with the US and China. A key milestone was the auto-tariff negotiation with the Trump administration, reportedly concluding with a reduction to 15% on Japanese cars; Ishiba announced his resignation shortly after—a symbolic end to his administration. With his departure, continuity on defense spending, Taiwan policy, and broader diplomacy is uncertain, posing risks for markets and allies alike.
Related article:
https://sekahan0623.com/trump-signs-auto-tariff-15-executive-order/
Minority Government and the “Hot Potato”
After the Upper House defeat, the LDP lost majorities in both chambers and is now a minority government. Being elected LDP president no longer guarantees becoming prime minister. Without support from other parties (e.g., the Democratic Party for the People or Ishin), the LDP president may fail to secure the Diet’s nomination. Even if appointed PM, day-to-day governance would be fraught—another short-lived cabinet is a real risk. The next leader is effectively picking up a hot potato.
The Opposition’s Perspective
Opposition parties are watching closely. The Democratic Party for the People could align on fiscal expansion and enter coalition talks; Ishin might join government under its reform-and-small-government platform. The Constitutional Democratic Party had even been rumored to eye a grand coalition with Ishiba due to ideological proximity with Yoshihiko Noda, but with Ishiba’s resignation, the CDP will need to pivot. This race could be the starting point of a broader political realignment.
Next LDP Leader and the Pressure for Generational Change
With Ishiba stepping down, the LDP must choose a new leader. While an emergency, Diet-members-only vote is widely discussed, a full-scale election including party members remains possible. The format will significantly shape each candidate’s prospects.
Main Candidates
- Sanae Takaichi
A staunch conservative on defense/diplomacy and an advocate of fiscal expansion, giving her policy affinity with the Democratic Party for the People and Sanseito.
• Diet-members-only: could consolidate conservative factions and gain an edge.
• With party-member votes: a hardline image might limit appeal, but Abe-line supporters would be solid. - Shinjiro Koizumi
Highly popular with the public; he topped Diet member votes in the last leadership race. Strong among younger and urban voters.
• Diet-members-only: factional dynamics could constrain him.
• With party-member votes: public popularity could make him a frontrunner. - Toshimitsu Motegi
A seasoned negotiator trusted across factions—strong at consolidating Diet votes.
• Diet-members-only: the clearest path to victory.
• With party-member votes: low name recognition/“too bland” could be a drag. - Yoshimasa Hayashi
Experienced in diplomacy/defense and well regarded internationally, but lacks a strong domestic base.
• Diet-members-only: could emerge as a compromise candidate.
• With party-member votes: limited name recognition may hurt.
The Kingmakers: Aso, Kishida, and Suga
Who the powerbrokers support may prove decisive. Deputy PM Taro Aso remains a pivotal kingmaker now that the Abe faction has weakened:
• Backing Takaichi signals continuity of the Abe line.
• Backing Koizumi signals generational change.
• Backing Motegi or Hayashi signals stability and coalition pragmatism.
Former PMs Fumio Kishida and Yoshihide Suga also retain influence. Kishida can swing cross-faction votes depending on his endorsement. Suga’s sway among independents and younger lawmakers could give Koizumi significant momentum if he lends support. The outcome hinges not only on candidates, but on these three powerbrokers’ choices.
The Collapse of “LDP President = Prime Minister”
Traditionally, the LDP president automatically became prime minister. As a minority government, that is no longer guaranteed. Without coalition partners, the new president may fail to pass a Diet vote for premiership. Historically, the 1994 “JSP–LDP–Sakigake” coalition saw Socialist leader Tomiichi Murayama become PM while the LDP remained the largest party—an instructive precedent for today’s uncertainty.
Summary: Generational Change and a Political Crossroads
This leadership race tests whether the LDP embraces generational change or clings to old factional structures. Veterans like Takaichi, Motegi, and Hayashi stress stability, while younger and mid-career lawmakers push renewal. Refusing change risks deeper public distrust and further conservative defections; signaling reform could restore some confidence. Ishiba’s resignation thus marks more than the end of a cabinet—it signals a structural shift in Japanese politics, where the formula “LDP president = prime minister” may no longer hold. The upcoming race is a genuine test of Japan’s political future.
See you again in the next article.
