News
The Russian government has announced that it will extend the gasoline export ban until the end of the year and impose a partial ban on diesel exports until year-end, in response to mounting fuel shortages. The measure comes after repeated Ukrainian drone strikes hit major refineries, causing a significant decline in Russia’s refining capacity.
According to the announcement, gasoline exports will remain fully prohibited for all traders, while the diesel ban will apply only to resellers, allowing direct exports by producers to continue. This is seen as a compromise measure to prioritize domestic consumption while keeping part of the export trade open.
In practice, fuel shortages are already visible in regions east of Moscow and in the Far East. In Crimea, emergency measures have been introduced, limiting gasoline purchases to 30 liters per transaction and freezing prices. These restrictions highlight the government’s urgency to shield domestic consumers from the growing crisis.
Experts note that the regulations themselves are unlikely to cause catastrophic disruptions to domestic distribution. However, as long as Ukrainian strikes continue, Russia’s fuel supply system will remain in an unstable state.
Background
Course of the War
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022 with the goal of toppling the government in Kyiv. The attempt was thwarted by strong Ukrainian resistance and Western military support, pushing the conflict into a prolonged war centered in the east and south. For more than three years, both countries have borne enormous human and economic costs.
Moves Toward a Ceasefire
The international community has repeatedly floated ceasefire and peace negotiations. Russia seeks to consolidate its territorial gains, while Ukraine continues to demand the return of all its territory. The gap between the two positions remains wide. At the same time, uncertainty over the scale and sustainability of Western support makes the question of when and how the war might be “frozen” increasingly central.
Significance of the Latest Strikes
The recent Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries are a notable development. Reports suggest that Russia’s refining capacity has fallen by nearly 40%, raising the prospect of severe impacts on fuel supply and the defense industry just as winter approaches. Even without breakthroughs at the front, striking Russia’s rear infrastructure raises the costs of war and could serve as leverage in potential ceasefire talks.
This explains the broader context of the war and the significance of the recent attacks. Let’s now look at how people around the world are reacting on social media.
Reactions from Abroad
Here are translated excerpts from user comments in the thread:
“So how’s that Russian economy doing now?”
“It’s literally overheated…”
“In Russian it would sound like this. Haha. ‘Burning hot oil production providing warmth to the holiday and space industry.’”
“The fire looks pretty small, hopefully they make it burn bigger soon.”
“I don’t think it was small. If flames are visible like that even in daylight, it must have been quite something.”
“Ah, what a beautiful sight! Keep hitting them—and target heating stations too. Winter is coming… for Russia.”
“The Russian government will have to choose: keep pouring money into the war while letting the masses freeze in the name of ‘protection,’ or cut war funding to keep people warm and allow state media to keep brainwashing them.”
“We already know which option they’ll choose.”
“It only took Ukraine about a month to move from 20% to 40% of Russia’s oil industry destroyed. Another month to hit 60% maybe. With winter coming and fuel shortages already obvious, this spells disaster. It’ll be nearly impossible to maintain military supply chains, which means an effective end to Russia’s ability to fight, alongside the devastating impact on its arms industry and logistics. The Russian government can’t do anything about it. They have just enough cash left to bail out two or three major companies, which isn’t nearly enough—and would bankrupt them anyway.”
“It’s not that simple. The first 20% may be equivalent to five very large refineries. The next 20% could mean twenty refineries, then fifty… they’ll need to hit more and more smaller sites.”
“Still, this article suggests plenty of large sites remain that could dramatically push the percentage up.”
“Another factor is that the system has built-in resilience. Russia exported huge volumes of petroleum products, so at first it can just cut, then eliminate exports. That reduces profits but still covers domestic needs. Once production falls below domestic demand, they can economize by cutting less critical uses, but further cuts become impossible to manage. So at first falling output doesn’t matter much, but once a threshold is crossed, it gets critical very fast. I wonder how many Russians live within walking distance of war-related factories.”
“As for Russian logistics, the breakdown is coming from multiple independent factors. That’s why I find the idea of an economic collapse on schedule convincing. Some Russian cities already can’t keep their buses running this year—drivers left because inflation crushed wages, and networks basically collapsed. Add fuel shortages—still just in the early stages in my view—and it’ll be an impossible problem for regional governments. These kinds of layered crises will spread across Russia, where weakened state bodies and key companies can’t solve them. Even if they fix one cause, spirals will continue. The tipping point is coming fast. There’s little resilience left.”
“This is delightful.”
“And this, my friends, is why solar PV and EVs are the future.”
“Now you see why China is electrifying its economy like its life depends on it?”
“It’s not sinister at all. They don’t have large fossil fuel reserves, but they do have a huge, growing population and economy. Covering the Gobi Desert with solar panels is much cheaper in the long run than buying oil.”
“It’s not sinister—it’s national self-defense. Every war since WWI has run on oil, and cutting off supplies guaranteed defeat. China produces very little oil domestically. They know that in any conflict, their economy won’t survive if it still runs on oil.”
“I don’t think China is going to get into a war they don’t start anytime soon, though.”
“Neither will the US.”
“Well, yeah, I don’t consider their military a self-defense force either.”
Analysis
Impact of Russia’s Refining Capacity Loss
Reports suggest Russia has lost up to 40% of its refining capacity. This directly affects the defense industry, logistics, and domestic consumption as winter looms. Social media reactions echoed this, highlighting “an economy sliding into collapse” and warning that “fuel shortages will cripple military supply.” Economic warfare beyond the battlefield is becoming a key dimension of the conflict.
Still, Russia retains some buffer by cutting exports to prioritize domestic needs. Large refineries remain intact, so it is premature to assume a total breakdown.
Significance of Potential US Tomahawk Supply
At the same time, reports that the US is considering supplying long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine add a new dimension to the conflict. If delivered, Ukraine could strike much deeper inside Russian territory, dramatically increasing the pressure on critical infrastructure.
Moscow has warned that such a move would represent a “major escalation,” potentially heightening tensions between Washington and Moscow and altering the nature of the war itself.
Ceasefire Challenges Ahead
This war is no longer simply about frontline battles but about which side exhausts its economic, logistical, and social endurance first. Russia is being bled internally by sanctions and infrastructure strikes, while Ukraine depends heavily on the continuity of Western support. The timing of a ceasefire will ultimately hinge on which side reaches its breaking point sooner.
Conclusion
Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries and the resulting domestic fuel shortages mark a new phase in the conflict. With US Tomahawk supply talks underway, many observers believe the war may be approaching its next stage.
The critical questions now are: how long Russia’s economy and logistics can withstand these blows, and how long Western nations will sustain Ukraine’s support.
Stay tuned for more updates in the next article.
References
- US Tomahawk missile shipments to Ukraine unlikely, sources say – Reuters (2025/10/02)
- Ukraine war briefing: Putin warns of ‘new level of escalation’ if Tomahawk missiles supplied – The Guardian (2025/10/03)
- U.S. considers Ukraine’s request for long-range Tomahawk missiles – Washington Post (2025/09/29)
- Russian gasoline production buckles under Ukrainian drone strikes – Washington Post (2025/10/02)
- Russia declares partial diesel export ban until year-end, extends gasoline ban – Reuters (2025/09/30)
- Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery halves refining capacity after drone attacks – Reuters (2025/08/04)
- Ukraine war briefing: Russian oil system struggling under Ukrainian attacks – The Guardian (2025/09/17)
- Why are US Tomahawk missiles for Ukraine a red line for Russia? – Al Jazeera (2025/09/30)
