Key Points
ใปAccording to Poder360’s count, President Luiz Inรกcio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s October 25, 2026 runoff with 51.79 percent against Senator Flรกvio Bolsonaro’s 48.21 percent, after finishing second in the first round. Local media report it is the first comeback from second place in a Brazilian runoff since direct presidential elections resumed in 1989.
ใปThe Liberal Party of the Bolsonaro camp became the largest force in the lower house, so Lula can pass laws only by trading ministries and budget money with the centrist parties known as the Centrรฃo.
ใปWhether Lula can turn the win into policy depends on that bargain, on pressure from a Trump administration close to the Bolsonaro family, and on how Brazil uses its dealings with both the United States and China as leverage.
Lula Wins the Runoff From Behind and Heads Into a Fourth Term
Brazil held its presidential runoff on October 25, 2026. According to Poder360’s final count, incumbent Lula of the Workers’ Party, who campaigned on social support, defeated Senator Flรกvio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, with 51.79 percent to 48.21 percent, a margin of about 4.4 million votes.
| Lula | Flรกvio Bolsonaro | |
|---|---|---|
| First round, October 4 | 45.16% | 47.03% |
| Runoff, October 25 | 51.79% | 48.21% |
According to Agรชncia Senado, Flรกvio Bolsonaro led the first round, and Lula will take office on January 5, 2027, for his fourth term overall. Local media report that no candidate who finished second in the first round had won a runoff since direct presidential elections resumed in 1989.
On runoff day, Justice Cristiano Zanin of the Supreme Federal Court extended voting until 7 p.m. at polling places that were still open, citing problems with transporting voters. Both campaigns are reported to have asked for an extension. On the night of October 25, Flรกvio Bolsonaro criticized the extension as “changing the rules in the middle of the game” and said he would not accept the result.
On October 26, the Liberal Party issued a statement accepting the result while asking for explanations on points it had questioned, according to Agรชncia Brasil. Flรกvio Bolsonaro’s office said it was preparing an electoral lawsuit alleging abuse of power by Lula’s side. The same day, President Donald Trump told reporters, without offering evidence, that it looked like “another rigged election.” According to CNN Brasil, the benchmark Ibovespa stock index closed down 13.88 percent on October 26, and the dollar rose about 8 percent against the real.
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Why Brazil’s President Cannot Govern Alone
The Centrรฃo is a loose bloc of centrist and center-right parties in Brazil’s Congress that is known less for a fixed ideology than for supporting whoever holds the presidency in exchange for ministries and budget money. The lower house has 513 seats and the Senate has 81, and more than ten parties hold seats. A president’s own party almost never reaches a majority, so presidents assemble coalitions to pass budgets and bills.
The Centrรฃo’s leverage is partly built into the budget. Parliamentary budget amendments (emendas) let lawmakers designate how money is spent on projects in their home districts. According to CNN Brasil, the 2026 budget includes about 61 billion reais in such amendments.
In the October 4 congressional elections, held alongside the first round, the Liberal Party won 121 seats and became the largest force in the lower house, according to CNN Brasil’s October 5 tally. The coalition centered on Lula’s Workers’ Party held 88 seats. The Liberal Party also became the largest bloc in the Senate.
Jair Bolsonaro could not run this time. In 2023 the electoral court barred him from running for office until 2030 for attacking the electronic voting system ahead of the 2022 election, and in 2025 the Supreme Federal Court sentenced him to 27 years and 3 months for plotting a coup. His eldest son Flรกvio ran in his place.
Lula, born in 1945, rose as a union leader in Sรฃo Paulo’s industrial belt and served as president from 2003 to 2010. In 2003 he launched Bolsa Famรญlia, a program of cash payments to poor families that became the base of his support. He was convicted in a corruption case and jailed from April 2018 to November 2019. In March 2021 a Supreme Court justice annulled the conviction on the grounds that the lower court that tried him had no jurisdiction over the case. The ruling did not find him innocent. Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 election and returned for a third term.
In this campaign, Lula on the left put expanded education and cash benefits first, while the right campaigned on tougher action against criminal organizations and conservative values. Both sides spoke to worries about living costs and crime. The difference lay in which they put first and how they proposed to respond.
Three Bargains Awaiting Lula in a Fourth Term
What carried the comeback, and what it leaves unsolved
Right-wing candidates won presidential elections in Ecuador, Chile and other Latin American countries in 2025 and 2026, according to regional reporting. Each country has its own circumstances, but Lula, the incumbent, won anyway.
Local reports cite three reasons for the comeback: hopes for expanded education and cash programs, wariness about the Bolsonaro family returning to power, and anger at US tariffs. The vote count cannot show how much each mattered. All three remain open problems after the win, because expanding benefits needs Congress and funding, the Bolsonaro camp’s strength remains in Congress and the states, and US pressure continues.
Who does Lula need to work with to pass laws?
In his victory speech, Lula said it was the voters, not he, who had chosen this Congress, and that he would work with it to pass legislation. Local reports say the right holds a majority in the new Congress, so Centrรฃo votes are essential.
What the Centrรฃo wants is ministries and budget allocations. According to Poder360, Lula met the heads of both chambers the day after the election and began reshuffling his cabinet. In his third term he also brought politicians from center-right parties such as Republicanos and Progressistas into the cabinet to widen support. What Lula wants to pass is a package of education and cash support, such as full-day schools and payments for high school students, which needs substantial funding.
Can he pay for both the budget for centrist parties and the cost of benefits? To explain the stock and currency plunge the day after the election, local reports pointed to selling by investors who had bet on a Flรกvio Bolsonaro win, along with worries about fiscal management. InfoMoney reported that the government intends to keep the current rule limiting spending growth while looking for revenue through measures such as heavier taxes on high earners.
The right has not lost its strength. It holds the largest party in the lower house and the governorships of major states such as Sรฃo Paulo. With Jair Bolsonaro barred from running, the question of who becomes the right’s next leading figure, Sรฃo Paulo governor Tarcรญsio de Freitas or someone else, will shape what follows.
Why does the Trump administration care so much about Brazil?
US pressure on Brazil began before the election. In July 2025, according to a White House fact sheet, the Trump administration announced tariffs of 50 percent in total on Brazilian imports, citing among other reasons the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro, and it also sanctioned the Supreme Federal Court justice who oversaw his case. The US Supreme Court ruled those tariffs unlawful in February 2026, ending them, but the administration switched to a different trade law, and according to the US Trade Representative a 25 percent tariff has applied since July 2026.
One reason is resources. Brazil is said to hold the world’s second-largest rare earth reserves after China. Rare earths are minerals essential for strong magnets and other advanced products. In April, according to Poder360, a US company agreed to buy the only rare earth mine operating in Brazil. That agreement is between companies and is distinct from either government’s resource policy. In October, Reuters reported experts’ view that whoever won would come under strong pressure to make concessions to Washington on minerals.
Another is competition with China. According to Datamar News, China took 29.3 percent of Brazil’s exports in January to September 2025, far above the United States at 11.3 percent. For Washington, South America’s largest country moving closer to China would mean a loss of regional influence. Flรกvio Bolsonaro, who is close to the administration, asked Trump in May to designate Brazil’s large criminal organizations as foreign terrorist groups, and Lula has rejected such proposals as interference in internal affairs.
The pressure also worked in Lula’s favor in some ways. Some polls found his approval rose after the tariffs, when he campaigned on a “sovereign Brazil,” while others found the most common answer blamed Lula for the tariffs, so assessments were split. How much US pressure moved the runoff cannot be stated with confidence. Trump’s “rigged election” remark echoes Flรกvio Bolsonaro’s claims, and whether Washington keeps negotiating on tariffs or deepens ties with the Brazilian right is the next question.
How will Brazil bargain with both the United States and China?
Brazil cannot cut ties with either. China is the largest buyer of soybeans and iron ore, and according to press reports citing a tally by the grain exporters’ association Anec, about 80 percent of soybean exports go to China. The United States is an investment and technology partner and a market for manufactured goods.
The agricultural regions where the right is strongest are also deeply tied to China, so the interests of a right that leans toward Washington and of farmers who sell to China do not necessarily match.
Lula is trying to turn resources into a bargaining chip. In September 2026 Brazil enacted a law setting a national critical minerals policy, and at the UN General Assembly Lula argued that foreign access to Brazil’s resources should be tied to processing and technology transfer inside Brazil, according to Cenรกrio Energia.
Reuters describes Lula as valuing sovereignty, multilateral cooperation and the BRICS grouping of emerging economies, and Flรกvio Bolsonaro as close to the Trump administration. Lula’s attachment to BRICS can be read less as joining China’s camp than as a way to keep options open in bargaining with Washington.
What does Brazil’s election mean for Japan?
The Brazilian election is not remote for Japan. At Lula’s state visit to Japan in March 2025, the two governments agreed an action plan through 2030, and about 80 public and private cooperation projects were announced, according to the Prime Minister’s Office of Japan. How to build ties with a country that sides fully with neither the United States nor China overlaps with questions for Japanese diplomacy, as a US ally and a major importer of resources.
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Japanese Reactions to Lula’s Win
The posts below are Japanese-language reactions on X that we read and checked one by one. They are a small set, not a random sample, and not a measure of opinion in Japan. The translations are ours.
Some users simply welcomed the result. Replying to another user, one wrote:
ใใใงใใญ ูฉ( แ )ูใใจใไธๆใงใใๅใ่จ่ใ่ฉฑใใฐใใใๅ้ใซใชใใพใใใญ
— ใใใใชใใ็ฉๅฐใMademoiselle (@aicmademoiselle) October 27, 2026
็งใไธ็ๅธๆฐใจใใฆใซใฉๆฐใฎๅๅฉใฏๆฌๅฝใซๅฌใใใงใใๆฅๆฌใใใใ็ฅใ็ณใไธใใพใ๐ฅ
… As a citizen of the world, I am truly happy about Mr. Lula’s victory. Congratulations from Japan too ๐ฅ (translated)
Others questioned how the win was being framed. Replying to a post that credited the victory to the “unity of the people,” one user pointed to the narrow margin:
ใซใฉๅคง็ตฑ้ ใฎๅพ็ฅจ็ใฏ51.79%ใงใใใๅ ๅทฎใงใฎๅๅฉใงใใ
— ๐๐งใดใๅ ็๐จ๐ฉ (@5364xyz) October 27, 2026
ใใฎๅๅ ใใไบบๆฐใฎๅฃ็ตใใงใใใชใใฐใๅฏพ็ซๅ่ฃใซ็ฅจใๆใใ48.21%ใฏใๅฃ็ตใงใใชใไบบๆฐใใชใฎใงใใใใ๏ผ
ใใฎใใใช่ใๆนใฏใใใฉใธใซใซใๅฃ็ตใใงใฏใชใใๅๆญใใใใใใใฆใใพใใฎใงใฏใชใใงใใใใ๏ผ https://t.co/7Z6HEVVv4J
President Lula’s vote share was 51.79 percent, a narrow win. If the reason for his victory is the “unity of the people,” are the 48.21 percent who voted for his opponent “a people that cannot unite”? Wouldn’t that kind of thinking bring “division” to Brazil rather than “unity”? (translated)
Skepticism about Lula’s record also appeared. Commenting on a BBC report about how WhatsApp campaigning helped his re-election, @ajptwkaamujgaam wrote: “Looks like people got taken in by sweet words. If he were doing things properly, things would be at least a bit better by now.” (translated)
One market-focused user noted the sell-off. @kumina3ETF, an account that posts about investing, wrote: “The Brazilian real crashed too. It wasn’t just Brazilian stocks.” (translated)
Turning a Win Into Policy
Several factors are reported behind Lula’s comeback: hopes for social support, wariness about the Bolsonaro family, and resentment of US tariffs. But the Congress he now faces is right-leaning, markets are watching his fiscal management, and Washington is watching the bargaining over resources and tariffs. The election win is only the starting point for negotiating with all three.
Three moments will show whether he can turn the win into policy. One is the cabinet appointments before the January 2027 inauguration and the first budget talks in the new Congress that begins in February, which will show what centrist parties demand in return for their support. Another is the tariff talks, which will show how far a deal with Washington can go. The third is how much he can extract from both the United States and China over critical minerals and farm exports.
Lula turned 81 on October 27. The question of whom he will hand the left’s course to after a fourth term will also grow heavier over the next four years.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Brazil’s 2026 presidential runoff?
Incumbent Lula of the Workers’ Party won the October 25, 2026 runoff, according to Poder360’s final tally, with 51.79 percent against Flรกvio Bolsonaro’s 48.21 percent, a margin of about 4.4 million votes. He takes office on January 5, 2027, for his fourth term overall.
Can Lula pass his agenda through Brazil’s Congress?
Not easily. According to CNN Brasil’s October 5, 2026 tally, the Liberal Party holds 121 lower house seats against 88 for the coalition around Lula’s Workers’ Party, so Lula needs centrist Centrรฃo votes. Those votes typically come in exchange for ministries and budget allocations.
Why couldn’t Jair Bolsonaro run?
In 2023, Brazil’s electoral court barred him from running for office until 2030 for attacking the electronic voting system, according to Agรชncia Brasil. In 2025 the Supreme Federal Court also sentenced him to 27 years and 3 months for plotting a coup, according to the court. His son Flรกvio ran in his place.
Does the United States still tax Brazilian goods?
Yes. The US Supreme Court struck down the 50 percent tariffs in February 2026, but according to the US Trade Representative, a 25 percent tariff under Section 301 of a different trade law has applied since July 2026.
How did Japanese social media react to Lula’s win?
In the small set of Japanese-language posts on X that we checked, some users welcomed the result, one questioned a “unity” framing for a narrowly divided country, one doubted Lula’s record, and a market-focused user noted the fall in Brazilian stocks and the real. They are not a measure of opinion in Japan.
Sekahan on YouTube
We publish video summaries of articles like this one, along with short clips built around Japanese reactions.
Reference Links
- Lula รฉ reeleito para quarto mandato de presidente | Agรชncia Senado
- Flรกvio nรฃo reconhece vitรณria de Lula e tentarรก anulaรงรฃo do pleito | Agรชncia Brasil
- Trump says, without evidence, that Brazil election looks rigged | Reuters (via MarketScreener)
- Mercado financeiro: Ibovespa e dรณlar em 26 de outubro de 2026 | CNN Brasil
- Bancada dos partidos na Cรขmara | CNN Brasil
- Reeleito, Lula despacha no Alvorada e prepara reforma ministerial | Poder360
- Lula reeleito: quais promessas da campanha ficam para o quarto mandato | InfoMoney
- STF conclui julgamento de aรงรตes contra rรฉus que planejaram golpe de Estado | STF
- Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Addresses Threats to the United States from the Government of Brazil | The White House
- USTR Section 301 Action: Brazil’s Unreasonable Acts, Policies, and Practices | USTR
- Brazil election to reshape trade with US, with tariffs and minerals at stake | Reuters (via Internazionale)
- China strengthens lead in Brazilian exports | Datamar News
- Lula defende soberania sobre minerais crรญticos e cobra agregaรงรฃo de valor no Brasil na ONU | Cenรกrio Energia
- Japan-Brazil Joint Press Announcement (March 26, 2025) | Prime Minister’s Office of Japan (in Japanese)
